Posts Tagged ‘Hybrid Cars’

Filed under: EV/Plug-in, Hybrid, Green Daily, China, USA

With the Chinese government recently announcing plans to invest a whopping 100 billion yuan (.7 billion U.S. at the current exchange rate) into the development and production of alternative energy vehicles, and with the bulk majority of the funds reportedly earmaked for electric vehicles (EVs), it now appears China will soon lead the world in EV sales. A recent study, conducted by Pike Research, predicts that China will have at least one million EVs on their roads by 2015. The same study suggests that the U.S. will lag behind slightly, with only 840,000 plug-ins scattered across our nation’s highways and byways by then. We may be in second place, but an average of 168,000 plug-in vehicles sold a year for the next five years is pretty remarkable.

China may be projected to reign EV supreme, but Pike says the U.S. will become the world’s hottest hybrid market. The study predicts that hybrid sales in China will only reach 850,000 units from now until 2015. Meanwhile, the U.S. is expected to tally an astounding 2.3 million hybrid sales within that time.

China’s .7 billion investment makes our government’s commitment of .5 billion look comparatively small. The study suggests that China’s substantial EV incentives, coupled with the fact that many first-time car buyers are entering its automotive market, will help to quickly push the nation’s EV sales right on past the U.S.

[Source: Hybrid Cars, Pike Research]

Study: China to gain top spot in electric vehicle sales by 2015; U.S. will remain hybrid haven originally appeared on Autoblog Green on Wed, 25 Aug 2010 16:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Autoblog Green

Would a diesel hybrid resonate in America?

2011 Peugeot 3008 hybrid 4 diesel crossover

Despite better fuel economy, especially in highway driving, diesel vehicles will probably never achieve the kind of penetration achieved in Europe in the US according to most experts. However, could diesel hybrids change that prediction?

Moreover, might the ability to fuel with biodiesel, for instance, make the upcoming Peugeot 3008 hybrid 4 more intriguing to American consumers?

In the Spring of 2011, Peugeot will start selling the 3008 hybrid 4 crossover vehicle in Europe. The all wheel drive, 163-horsepower, 2.0-liter I-4 turbodiesel will be mated to a 37-horsepower electric motor and utilize a NiMH battery pack, resulting in a full hybrid powertrain capable of pure electric propulsion – the key to outstanding urban fuel economy. According to European measurements, the 3008 hybrid 4 will achieve a combined 74.4 mpg, although US EPA numbers would probably be lower.

Certainly, that kind of fuel economy, as well as the sportier driving experience provided by diesel technology, would definitely catch the attention of some US hybrid drivers.

Anyway, while diesel hybrid concepts have been around for many years, most automakers – even in diesel loving Europe – have avoided mass production of these hybrid cars due to production costs. So, it’s still a little hard to measure the potential of such a hybrid until pricing has been released. However, the new 3008 hybrid should prove intriguing for Europe’s urban commuters.

But resonating in the US, particularly since it will cost more than a comparable gasoline hybrid, seems unlikely barring some sort of breakthrough in biodiesel technology. Nevertheless, I’d love to see Peugeot try to sell this new hybrid in the US.

Hybridcarblog

First currency manipulation, now plug-in supply manipulation?

Can China control the US market for battery-powered vehicles?

A few days ago, China announced that it might spend up to billion on new energy vehicles over the next 10 years. While the plan offers limited details, within 3 years China hopes to have 500,000 alternative vehicles on the road, and up to 5 percent alternative energy vehicle  penetration within the next few years. By 2020, China hopes to have produced 5 million new energy vehicles.

But what does this really mean?

What are ‘new energy vehicles’? Just EVs? Hybrids and EVs? Something else?

If just EVs, isn’t China’s overwhelming reliance upon antiquated coal technologies going to become a major CO2 problem?

Regardless, that’s not the most interesting part of this story.

Resource supply management

Several years ago Ford claimed many more hybrid cars could have been sold, if not for Toyota’s stranglehold on NiMH battery supplies.

Because Toyota had planned years ahead  – far ahead of Ford – and procured contracts for every important commodity needed for NiMH hybrid vehicles, cost-effective supplies were hard to acquire, and few battery makers were willing to invest much into such supplies. Thus Toyota helped develop their own supply chains over the course of many years.

Even today, while many ridicule Toyota for not developing plug-in vehicles fast enough, apparently because of the success of the Prius, I’d still bet that Toyota has already contracted far more lithium supplies than any Big 3 automaker. That might not be as relevant as with NiMH batteries, but it could still be an important key to early success.

However, unlike either Japanese or American automakers, China also has nice supplies of lithium and refined rare metals – state owned – for their government owned auto industry. Eventually, China might also need to import lithium, but for now China has a distinct advantage compared to both Japan and the US.

Even better, with a significant state-funded increase in demand for their precious state-owned rare earths, China can assure the highest prices for these important commodities, helping to offset the costs of this hybrid effort (besides interest from US treasuries will also help).

Ultimately, for as much as a decade or more, America simply cannot excel at the development of plug-in vehicles, or even hybrids, without critical resources from China, and the quicker China ramps up Chinese production of hybrids and plug-ins, the more expensive they can make non-Chinese hybrids and plug-ins through the supply and demand of critical resources.

If you’re China, why not ramp up battery-powered vehicles as quickly as possible when you can force the world’s established automakers to help cover the costs?

Hybridcarblog

At least pick cans over bottles

Americans ignorant or lazy on energy?

Favorite American ways to save energy according to a new study: turning off lights, driving slower on the highway, unplugging cellphone chargers when not in use, and choosing glass over aluminum.

Thanks for just less than nothing.

On the other hand, in just less than a decade switching from central air to window units, buying a high mileage car and choosing canned beer instead of bottles could a have a significant impact on US energy consumption.

A lot of interesting ideas presented in this study via Green Car Congress, but one point that really caught my attention: “contrary to popular perception, modest mileage improvements to very low-mileage vehicles will save far more gasoline than inventing vehicles that get astronomically high mileage.”

Excuses. Is that the fundamental characteristic of Americans? Of American corporations?

I’m not going to buy a hybrid because I’ll only buy a plug-in since hybrid cars are only an interim technology.

Yet, if all Americans were buying hybrids today it would have massive impact on US energy consumption. If not hybrids, then diesels and Ecoboosts, for instance. But we don’t have to wait until there are plug-ins for all American consumers before massive, effective change can be achieved.

But, hey, if we just keep shutting the lights off faster and faster, the darkness can at least hide reality I guess.

Nevertheless, might it be easier to achieve change in America than is believed? Can education change American energy habits, or is this study simply proof that Americans are just plain lazy?

Hybridcarblog

Californacation?

Ohh soooo LA

So far this summer, I’ve driven through about 10 states, happily noticing many hybrid cars along the way, even in so-called ‘red states’. Whether it’s a green statement, or a statement against foreign oil, hybrid fans are everywhere.

Of course, in LA there are moments when, judging by all the hybrids, one might believe that real automotive change has already happened, but the facts simply don’t support such a perception.

Perceptual reality

Last night my niece was watching Legally Blond, and as I watched a few minutes of the movie, I thought about how much such shows shape the perceptions many people have of Angelenos. ‘Like, hey dude. Let’s have some sushi and buy some Versace for Freddy the chihuahua.’

But that’s oh so West LA.

On the other hand, I was at party Saturday night in Glassel Park, an East LA neighborhood, (although it’s not really East LA), where one of my friends was showing off his new truck, a giant Ford F250.

“Why such a big truck,” someone asked?

“I just like big trucks.”

“What about gas prices,” another asked?

“I don’t care,” he responded. “I’ll worry about that when it becomes a problem.”

Certainly, there are times, especially in some LA neighborhoods, when it seems like everyone in LA drives a hybrid, but if you really stop and look around, hybrids are everywhere, but still only in small percentages overall. BMWs, for instance, are still much more common. Similarly, in the parking lot of the party I attended Saturday, where a few hundred guests showed up, I only noticed one hybrid. Mine.

Yet, in the next decade, hybrid adoption has been predicted to increase from less than 3 percent today, to over 20 percent in 2020. How? Why?

It seems most automakers can easily achieve upcoming CAFE regulations without adding much new hybrid technology, especially when methodologies for determining fuel economy are so skewed towards highway fuel economy. Porsche, the most impacted automaker in terms of CAFE for example, believes that just 15 percent hybrid is enough to make their gas-guzzling fleet achieve CAFE requirements.

So, what forces 20 or even 25 percent? New regulations? Much higher gas prices? Lithium? All of the above?

Many automakers, for instance, don’t seem to agree with such bullish hybrid forecasts. Instead of a real effort into hybrids, Nissan for instance, seems more content with trying to achieve 10 percent EV penetration, while Chrysler seems focused on conventional, although Euro-styled, compact and micro-cars. Similarly, GM’s continued focus on mild hybrids seems just as hybrid-doubtful, and even after a decade of hybrid sales, Honda seems uncertain if not totally confused.

Of course, hot kid on the block, Hyundai is more in line with hybrid-bullish Toyota and Ford.

Yet, if automakers, powertrain forecasters, battery analysts, energy hawks and policy-makers are studying the same data, why are the forecasts and favored technologies still so diverse?

It seems numerous breakthroughs across many different technologies could force automakers to almost instantly make major changes to their lineups and to their long term plans. Calling Heisenberg!

Inevitably, great change is coming, possibly even sooner than expected. That change, however, probably won’t end up looking anything like being predicted today. Consequently, if there is a skill that seems essential for automakers heading into the future, it seems to be nimbleness. Unfortunately, that skill is lacking throughout the entire auto industry.

Until such breakthroughs, marketing – perception – seems to be automakers’ favored technology.

As for me, I’m heading out for some sushi and then to Rodeo Drive. My dog needs a new collar.

Hybridcarblog